You may have heard rumors of disaster in 2012. The word disaster comes from some ancient language. The prefix dis means bad, and the word aster means star. So, we have bad star. And in the days of superstition, astronomy and astrology were the same thing.

We have superstition yet. And we have the Internet. The Internet allows the dissemination of unchecked disinformation faster than was ever possible in the past. Even faster than Hollywood. Pretty much as fast as anyone can think of it. Or at least type. Yes, it's more than a little ironic that this anti-superstition essay is posted on the Internet. But as fast as as the Internet is for dissemination of unchecked disinformation, it's also pretty quick for fact checking. I'll award no-prize to the first person to find a mistake in this essay. And, unlike the conspiracy theorists, i promise to correct it. If it exists. In the mean time, and to steal a line from a movie advertisement, let's find out the truth.

So, the latest disinformation (that's bad information) says that the world will end on December 21, 2012. Let's explore some of the claims, and how well they hold up.

First, the date. A calendar used by native peoples of Mexico, the Mayans, is said to end on that date. (By the way, it is widely stated that the Mayans are all dead. While the great Mayan civilization collapsed, there are Mayan descendants still.) What the Mayan calendar actually does is roll over then. That's pretty much what the Gregorian calendar did at the end of 1999. And at the end of 2000. At the end of 1999, the calendar flipped 9's into 0's. The year 2000 was the last year of the 2nd millennium. 2001 started the third millennium, more or less. Arthur's book got it right. Except that the date for the birth of Jesus isn't known for sure. For exmample, some evidence points to Labor Day, 3 BC.

But what was the big deal? The world didn't end in 2000 or 2001, despite claims to the contrary. None of the predicted floods, famine, pollution, or shift of the Earth's magnetic poles happened. The May 5th, 2000 planetary alignment did not bring solar flares, significant earthquakes, "land changes" or "seismic explosions". Even the famous Y2K bug didn't seem to cause much disruption. I know something of this, as i personally tracked down and exterminated many of the little buggers in my career as a computer professional. We have a history of mispredictions for the end of the world.

The Mayan calendar rolls over, but it's not much of a threat. December 21, 2012 ends the cycle called Baktun 13. A baktun is 144,000 days: a little more than 394 years. However, the evidence suggests that the Mayans did not attribute much significance to this event. Certainly not a disaster. Some surviving Mayan texts refer to dates well past Baktun 13. For more detail on the Mayan calendar, look up the November 2009 Sky & Telescope magazine article, The Great 2012 Scare.

There are numerous claims for 2012. One might be worried if any of them look as if they might be right. But one should also be extra skeptical if any of them should prove to be trivially wrong. I mean, if someone tells you five things, and one of them is wrong, or a lie, then perhaps the others are wrong, or outright lies. And we already have one that is wrong - the Mayan calendar. The Bible warns of wolves in sheep's clothing. That is, beware of people who lie to you. It's not a new problem.

Another prediction is, once again, a shift in the magnetic poles. Oddly enough, there is evidence that the magnetic poles of the Earth flip North and South from time to time. There is evidence of drift in the position of the magnetic pole over time. We are even, in some sense, overdue for a magnetic pole reversal. However, there do not appear to be any mass extinctions that coincide with these events. Life seems to be able to cope. One thought is that they happen so slowly, that life appears able to adapt. There doesn't appear to be any significant problem with cosmic rays (which are deflected by the Earth's magnetic field), the ozone layer, and so on. So, the evidence is that even if such a shift happened in 2012, it wouldn't be a big deal.

A related pole shift prediction is that the Earth's axis of rotation would somehow flip. This is unlikely in the extreme. The Earth's Moon keeps the Earth's axis of rotation locked into a pretty stable tilt, over the lifetime of the solar system. It's not likely to change much in a couple years.

But, the claim is that a large planet, the size of Jupiter and named Nibiru, will come into the inner solar system, and sweep from the outer solar system, and either strike the Earth or come very close. The name comes from Egyptian texts, apparently. And the similarity it has to the size of Jupiter is not just a coincidence. It appears that Nibiru was a name used by the Egyptians for the planet Jupiter. Jupiter is not heading our way any time soon. Certainly not in 2012.

Let's say that there was a Jupiter sized planet coming our way in 2012. Where would it be now? Well, it would have to be well inside the orbit of Neptune. And even if it was black as tar, it would be incredibly bright. The Moon is as black as tar. And it's much smaller than Jupiter. The millions of amateur astronomers would have seen it by now. And if, as has been suggested, that it's only visible from the southern hemisphere, then thousands of amateur astronomers who happen to live far enough south would have seen it. If an object happens to be overhead south of the equator, that doesn't mean that no one in the Northern Hemisphere can see it. From 42 degrees North, (Detroit), one can see 48 degrees South of the equator. That's more than half of the Southern skies. And It should be pointed out that thousands of people would not be able to keep a such a secret. After all, a hundred people weren't able to keep the Watergate scandle quiet. And, of course, amateur astronomers routinely post their latest finds on the internet, often minutes after discovery. Most of the conspiracy theories i've heard have this problem. Huge numbers of people can't keep secrets. The obvious conclusion is that this object, Nibiru, does not exist.

Another claim was that 2012 was to be the year of the most recent solar maximum. However, the Sun isn't cooperating. The current solar cycle has taken longer than usual, and it isn't expected to reach maximum until some time in 2013. And, we have such a maximum every eleven years, more or less. We've survived them so far. So much for that idea.

So, what is known for certain about the end of the world? Well, we know that nothing is permanent. The world will end. Eventually. Just not in 2012. For one thing, at about 4,500,000,000 years old, the Sun is middle aged. As it ages, it gets a bit hotter. Some estimates are that the Earth will be too hot in just another 150 million years. And in five billion years, give or take, the Sun will expand into it's Red Giant phase. The surface of the Sun will expand out to approximately the diameter of the Earth's orbit. The Earth will pull a tidal bulge out from the Sun, which will cause gravitational drag, causing the Earth to spiral in, and be consumed - vaporized. And such an event would be the end of the world, to be sure. Even if it is billions of years after the oceans boil away.

On the face of it, this fate seems certain. However, the Earth currently enjoys a peculiar chemical reaction which we call life. That includes us. And we're already clever enough to know how to save the Earth(!). We'd be stupid indeed, if we don't. It's a big project, but calculations suggest that we have plenty of time. The physics are already well understood. There are some fairly minor technical (engineering) details to attend to. But the general idea is to put a large asteroid on a figure eight orbit between the Earth and Jupiter. We steal some orbital energy from Jupiter (which will hardly notice), and give it to the Earth - expanding it's orbit. As the Sun heats up and expands, we move the Earth out in it's orbit, keeping it at a nice temperature. One can get a big asteroid moving by using smaller asteroids moving by it. One must be careful. An accident could cause the end of the world - which is what we were trying to avoid. It's a bit of irony that the technology to save the Earth can also end it.

While we're saving the Earth, we might as well save Venus. It has similar gravity to Earth. We'd need to cool it down, spin it faster, and fill it back up with water. Without it's runaway greenhouse effect, it would freeze where it is. It isn't as difficult as it sounds. A few thousand years at most to bring down the temperatures. These orbit moving projects take millions of years. Terraforming Venus would be finished before we knew what was happening. And, as the temperatures on Venus have been hot enough to melt lead, it's almost certainly currently lifeless. Unlike Mars, which still seems quite likely to have some sort of life on it. We could infect Venus at our leisure without any pesky ethical questions.

And after the Sun's Red Giant phase, it stops any nuclear fusion, and collapses into a White Dwarf phase. So, we reverse the outward spiral of the Earth, and keep the Earth at that just right toasty warm distance. At that point, the Sun slowly cools, but estimates are that we have trillions of years left. Plenty of time to colonize the rest of the Milk-dromedae galaxy. No, i didn't see the 2012 movie. I'd like to be able to enjoy such a spectacle, but there are limits to my abilities in the area of suspension of disbelief.

Some say the world will end in fire, Some say in ice. From what I've tasted of desire I hold with those who favor fire. But if it had to perish twice, I think I know enough of hate To know that for destruction ice Is also great And would suffice. - Robert Frost

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